UTILIZING SITE CHARACTERISTICS IN NEURAL NETWORK MODELLING OF PERCENTAGE COST-TIME OVERRUN OF BUILDING PROJECTS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33736/jcest.374.2017Keywords:
Building Projects, Construction Industry, Cost Overrun, Site Characteristics, Time OverrunAbstract
This study evaluated the site characteristics influencing the time and cost delivery of building projects, determined the range of percentage cost and time overrun and developed a neural network model for predicting the percentage cost and time overrun using the site characteristics of building projects. The study evaluated twelve site characteristics and two performance indicators obtained from records of construction costs, contract documents, and valuation reports of 126 purposively sampled building projects spread across several cities in Nigeria. Analyses were with descriptive and artificial neural network. It was concluded that with fairly favourable site characteristics, cost overrun range reached 77.95% with a mean variation of 44.36%, while time overrun range reached 51.23% with a mean variation of 26.77%. It was found that the accuracy performance levels of 91.93% and 91.43% for the cost and time overrun predictions respectively were very high for the optimum models. Building projects have eight significant site characteristics which can be used to reliably predict the percentage overrun, among which the ground water level, level of available infrastructure and labour proximity around the site are the most important predictors of cost and time overrun. The study recommended that project owners, consultants, contractors and other stakeholders should always use the eight identified site characteristics in predicting percentage cost and time overrun, with more priority on the first three characteristics. The study also recommended the neural network prediction approach due to its prediction accuracy.
References
Ijigah, E.A., Ogunbode, E.B., and Ibrahim, M.O. 2012. ''Analysis and Prediction of Cost and Time Overrun of Millennium Development Goals (MDGS) Construction Projects in Nigeria,'' Developing Country Studies, 2(10): 140-147.
Ujene, A.O. ''Integrating Environmental Priority Concerns in Building Planning and Production in Niger Delta, Nigeria,'' Journal of Architecture, Planning & Construction Management, 4(2): 37-56, 2014.
Ujene, A.O. 2012. ''Dynamics of Direct Costs of Building Elements in South-South, Nigeria. An Unpublished PhD Thesis, Department of Building, University of Uyo, Nigeria,''.
Aliyu, A.A., Kasim, R. and Martin, D. 2011. ''Factors Affecting Housing Development in Makama Jahun Area of Bauchi Metropolis, Nigeria,'' International Journal of Trade, Economics and Finance, 2(4): 263-268.
https://doi.org/10.7763/IJTEF.2011.V2.114
Achuenu, E. and Ujene, A.O. 2006. ''Evaluation of Material and Labour Cost of Building Elements in Nigeria, Nigerian Journal of Construction Technology and Management, 7(1): 99-110.
Ugonabo, C.U. and Emoh, F.I. 2013. ''The Major Challenges to Housing Development and Delivery in Anambra State of Nigeria,'' Civil and Environmental Research, 3(4): 1-19.
. Memon, A. H., Rahman, I. A., Abdullah, M. R and Abdu Azis, A. A. 2010. ''Factors Affecting Construction Cost in Mara Large Construction Project: Perspective of Project Management Consultant,'' International Journal of Sustainable Construction Engineering & Technology, 1(2):41-54.
https://doi.org/10.22452/jscp.vol2no1.4
Amusan, L.M. 2011. ''Study of Factors Affecting Construction Cost Performance in Nigerian Construction Sites,'' Unpublished Article, assessed from: http://eprints. Covenant university. edu.ng/121/1/COST_PERFORMANCE2.doc, date assessed 28/05/2011.
Wakita, O. A and Linde, R. M. 2003. ''The Professional Practice of Architectural Working Drawing,'' (3rd ed.), New York: John Willie & Sons, Inc., pp. 240-260.
Okali, D., Okpara, E and Olawoye, J. 2001. ''Rural-Urban Interactions and Livelihood Strategies a Case of Aba and its Region, Southeastern Nigeria,'' A Working Paper Series on Human Settlements Programme, International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED).
Al- Juwairah, Y.A. 1997. ''Factors Affecting Construction Cost in Saudi Arabia,'' Unpublished Master Thesis, King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals. Saudi Arabia. Retrieved from; http://eprints.kfupm.edu.sa/10044/, accessed: 20/ 10/ 2010.
Daramola, S. A., Alagbe, O. A., Aduwo, B. and Ogbiye, S.A. 2005. ''Public-Private Partnership and Housing Delivery in Nigeria,'' Proceedings of African Union of Architects Congress, Abuja, Nigeria. 23 - 28, May.
Alagbe, A. O. 2010. ''Knowledge as a Determinant of Acceptability of Compressed Stabilized Laterite Bricks for Affordable Housing in Nigeria,'' Paper presented at XXXVII IAHS World Congress on Housing, October 26 - 29, Santander, Spain.
UOFPP, 2003. ''Site Selection Process,'' A Report Prepared by the University Office for Facilities Planning and Programs, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign.
Li, H., Yu, L and Cheng, E. W. L. 2005. ''A GIS‐Based Site Selection System for Real Estate Projects,'' Construction Innovation, 5(4): 231 - 241.
https://doi.org/10.1108/14714170510815276
Monoliadis, O. G., Pantouvakis, J. P. and Tsolas, I. E. 2008. ''Compromise Programming Model in Site Selection for Construction Temporary Facilities, International Journal of Operation Research, 7 (3): 381-400.
https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03024854
Omole, F. K., and Owoeye, J.O. 2012. ''Impact of Rocky Topography on Settlement Pattern and Housing Development in Idanre, Nigeria," Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 3 (3): 517-527.
Oduwaye, L. 2009. ''Spatial Variations of Values of Residential Land Use in Lagos Metropolis,'' An International Multi-Disciplinary Journal, Ethiopia, 3(2): 381-403.
https://doi.org/10.4314/afrrev.v3i2.43638
Ogunsemi, D. R., and Aje, I. O. 2006. ''A Model for Contractors' Selection in Nigeria,'' Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction, 11(1): 33-44.
https://doi.org/10.1108/13664380680001078
Takim, R. and Akintoye, A. 2002. ''Performance Indicators for Successful Construction Project Performance,'' In: Greenwood, D (Ed.), 18th Annual ARCOM Conference, 2-4 September, University of Northumbria. Association of Researchers in Construction Management, 2: 545-555.
Fagbenle, O. I., and Oluwunmi, A. O. 2010. ''Building Failure and Collapse in Nigeria: The Influence of the Informal Sector,'' Journal of Sustainable Development, 3(4): 268-278.
https://doi.org/10.5539/jsd.v3n4p268
Adindu, C. C. and. Ibironke, O. T. 2012. ''Effect of Construction Risks and Uncertainties on Time and Cost Strategies of Building Contracts in Nigeria,'' Journal of Environmental Management and Safety, 3(2): 105 -117.
Love, P. E. D., Wang, X., Sing, C. and Tiong, R. L. K. 2013. ''Determining the Probability of Project Cost Overruns'' Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 139 (3): 321-330.
https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000575
Chukwu, S. C. and Nwachukwu, A. N. 2012. ''Analysis of Some Meteorological Parameters Using Artificial Neural Network Method for Makurdi, Nigeria,'' African Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 6(3):182-188.
https://doi.org/10.5897/AJEST11.350
Jamous, H. A. 2013. ''Parametric Cost Estimation of Road Projects Using Artificial Neural Networks,'' An M.Sc Thesis submitted to The Islamic University - Gaza Deanery of Graduate Studies Faculty of Engineering Civil Engineering Department Construction Management.
Dainty, A. R. J. 2008. ''Methodological Pluralism in Construction Management Research,'' In: Knight, A. and Ruddock, L. eds. Advanced Research Methods in the Built Environment. Oxford: Wiley-Blackwell. Pp.1-11.
Fletcher, L. 2002. ''Statistical Modeling by Neural Networks,'' A PhD thesis in Statistics, University of South Africa, South Africa.
Doreswamy, H. and Vastrad, C. M 2013. ''Performance Analysis of Neural Network Models for Oxazolines and Oxazoles Derivatives Descriptor Dataset,'' International Journal of Information Sciences and Techniques (IJIST), 3(6): 1-14.
https://doi.org/10.5121/ijist.2013.3601
Wilmot, C.G. and Mei, B. 2005. ''Neural Network Modeling of Highway Construction Costs,'' Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 131(7):765-771.
https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2005)131:7(765)
Alhassan, M., Adejumo, T. W. and Boiko, I. L. 2012. ''Classification of Subsoil Bases in Nigeria,'' The Electronic Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, 17: 1407- 1413.
Aluko, O. 2011. ''Development Control in Lagos State: An Assessment of Public Compliance to Space Standards for Urban Development,'' International Multidisciplinary Journal, Ethiopia, 5 (5): 169-184.
https://doi.org/10.4314/afrrev.v5i5.14
Oisasoje, O. M. and Aidelunuoghene, O. S. 2012. ''The Role of Public Infrastructure in Poverty Reduction in the Rural Areas of Edo State, Nigeria,'' Research on Humanities and Social Sciences, 2(7): 109-120.
Edet, A., Nganje, T. N., Ukpong, A. J. and Ekwere, A. S. 2011. ''Groundwater Chemistry and Quality of Nigeria: A status review'' African Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 5(13): 1152-1169.
https://doi.org/10.5897/AJESTX11.009
Ikejiofor, U.C. 2009. ''Planning within a Context of Informality: Issues and Trends in Land Delivery, Enugu, Nigeria. Case study prepared for Revisiting Urban Planning: Global Report on Human Settlements,'' Available: http://www.unhabitat.org/grhs/2009, accessed on 15/5/2015.
Oladapo, A.A. 2007. ''A quantitative assessment of the cost and time impact of variation orders on construction projects,'' Journal of Engineering, Design and Technology, 5(1), 35 - 48.
https://doi.org/10.1108/17260530710746597
ElSawy, I., Hosny, H. and. Razek, M. A. 2011. ''A Neural Network Model for Construction Projects Site Overhead Cost Estimating in Egypt,'' International Journal of Computer Science Issues, 8 (3): 273-283.
Gunaydın, H. M. and Dogan, S. Z. 2004. ''A Neural Network Approach for Early Cost Estimation of Structural Systems of Buildings,'' International Journal of Project Management, 22: 595-602.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2004.04.002
Abujamous, H. K., Rustom, R. N. and Abukmail, M. Y. 2014. ''Influencing Cost Factors in Road Projects in Gaza Strip Using Artificial Neural Network,'' Journal of Engineering Research and Technology, 1(4): 24-33.
Kitikidou, K. and Iliadis, L. 2012. ''Developing Neural Networks to Investigate Relationships Between Air Quality and Quality of Life Indicators,'' In: Air Pollution - Monitoring, Modelling and Health, Khare, M. (Ed.), Rijeka, Croatia: InTech. Available from: http://www.intechopen.com/books/air-pollutionmonitoring-modelling-and-health/ developing -neural-networks-to-investigate-relationships-between-air-qualityand-quality-of-life-indi.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Upon acceptance of an article, the corresponding author on behalf of all authors will be asked to complete and upload the Copyright Transfer Form (refer to Copyright Issues for more information on this) alongside the electronic proof file.
Copyright Transfer Statement for Journal
1) In signing this statement, the author(s) grant UNIMAS Publisher an exclusive license to publish their original research papers. The author(s) also grant UNIMAS Publisher permission to reproduce, recreate, translate, extract or summarize, and to distribute and display in any forms, formats, and media. The author(s) can reuse their papers in their future printed work without first requiring permission from UNIMAS Publisher, provided that the author(s) acknowledge and refer the publication in the Journal.
2) For open-access articles, the author(s) agree that their articles published under UNIMAS Publisher are distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0) which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, for non-commercial purposes, provided the original work of the author(s) is properly cited.
3) For subscription articles, the author(s) agree that UNIMAS Publisher holds the copyright or an exclusive license to publish. Readers or users may view, download, print, and copy the content, for academic purposes, subject to the following conditions of use: (a) any reuse of materials is subjected to permission from UNIMAS Publisher; (b) archived materials may only be used for academic research; (c) archived materials may not be used for commercial purposes, which include but not limited to monetary compensation by means of sale, resale, license, transfer of copyright, loan, etc.; and (d) archived materials may not be re-published in any part, either in print or online.
4) The author(s) are responsible to ensure their submitted work is original and does not infringe any existing copyright, trademark, patent, statutory right, or propriety right of others. The corresponding author has obtained permission from all co-authors prior to submission to the journal. Upon submission of the manuscript, the author(s) agree that no similar work has been or will be submitted or published elsewhere in any language. If the submitted manuscript includes materials from others, the authors have obtained permission from the copyright owners.
5) In signing this statement, the author(s) declare that the researches which they have conducted comply with the current laws of the respective country and UNIMAS Journal Publication Ethics Policy. Any experimentation or research involving humans or the use of animal samples must obtain approval from the Human or Animal Ethics Committee in their respective institutions. The author(s) agree and understand that UNIMAS Publisher is not responsible for any compensational claims or failure caused by the author(s) in fulfilling the above-mentioned requirements. The author(s) must accept the responsibility for releasing their materials upon request by Chief Editor or UNIMAS Publisher.
6) The author(s) should have participated sufficiently in the work and ensured the appropriateness of the content of the article. The author(s) should also agree that they have no commercial attachments (e.g. patent or license arrangement, equity interest, consultancies, etc.) that might pose any conflict of interest with the submitted manuscript. The author(s) also agree to make any relevant materials and data available upon request by the editor(s) or UNIMAS Publisher.
