Poisson and Negative Binomial Regression Models Application to Model the Factors of Car Ownership in Akure, South West, Nigeria
Abstract
Increase in number of cars without commensurate increase in the number of transport facilities and infrastructures has led to diverse traffic problems in many Nigerian cities like Akure. Factors which contribute to increase in the numbers of cars owned in Akure metropolis were investigated in this study. The study area was divided into three density zones namely High, Medium and Low while, data was collected using well-structured household questionnaire survey distributed amongst residents; with the survey yielding a return of 1002 questionnaire out of the 1181 distributed. Results from field findings gave the average number of cars owned per household in the study area as 0.62. Results of the Poisson Regression Model show that a change in the number of employed household members will decrease the number of cars owned in the study area by 9% while, a unit increase in the number of driver’s license holders in the household, academic qualification and average monthly income of the household will increase the number of cars owned by 60%, 26% and 30% respectively. The negative binomial model indicates that a change in the number of employed household members will decrease the number of cars owned by 10% whereas a change in the number of driver’s license holders in the household and monthly income will lead to an increase in the number of cars owned by 101% and 24% respectively. The test of model effects affirm that all the predictor variables are statistically significant indicating a good fit for the model predicted. Out of the two models, Poisson regression model is found to be a superior model due to a higher log likelihood ratio Chi Square and improved statistically significant variables. The findings in this research will assist government agencies to plan future transportation infrastructure development.
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