Poisson and Negative Binomial Regression Models Application to Model the Factors of Car Ownership in Akure, South West, Nigeria
Increase in number of cars without commensurate increase in the number of transport facilities and infrastructures has led to diverse traffic problems in many Nigerian cities like Akure. Factors which contribute to increase in the numbers of cars owned in Akure metropolis were investigated in this study. The study area was divided into three density zones namely High, Medium and Low while, data was collected using well-structured household questionnaire survey distributed amongst residents; with the survey yielding a return of 1002 questionnaire out of the 1181 distributed. Results from field findings gave the average number of cars owned per household in the study area as 0.62. Results of the Poisson Regression Model show that a change in the number of employed household members will decrease the number of cars owned in the study area by 9% while, a unit increase in the number of driver’s license holders in the household, academic qualification and average monthly income of the household will increase the number of cars owned by 60%, 26% and 30% respectively. The negative binomial model indicates that a change in the number of employed household members will decrease the number of cars owned by 10% whereas a change in the number of driver’s license holders in the household and monthly income will lead to an increase in the number of cars owned by 101% and 24% respectively. The test of model effects affirm that all the predictor variables are statistically significant indicating a good fit for the model predicted. Out of the two models, Poisson regression model is found to be a superior model due to a higher log likelihood ratio Chi Square and improved statistically significant variables. The findings in this research will assist government agencies to plan future transportation infrastructure development.
Fenger, J. (1999): Urban Air Quality. Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 33, pp. 48-9
Rodrigue, J-P et al. (2013).The Geography of Transport Systems, Hofstra University, Department of Global Studies & Geography. Retrieved from http://www.people.hofstra.edu/geotrans.on 03/10/2013 at 12:00noon
Cirillo, C. and Liu, Y. (2013) Vehicle Ownership Modeling Framework for the State of Maryland: Analysis and Trends from 2001 and 2009 NHTS Data Transportation Model (MSTM). American Society of Civil Engineers.
Awoyemi, O. K., Ita, A. E., Oke, M. O., Abdulkarim, I. A. & Awotayo, G. P.(2012). An Analysis of Trip Generation and Vehicular Traffic Pattern in Akure Metropolis Ondo State, Nigeria. Journals of Social Science and Public Policy, Volume 4.
Scott, D.M. & Axhausen, K.W. (2005). Household Mobility Tool Ownership: Modelling Interactions between Cars and Season Tickets Transportation (forthcoming).
De Jong, G., Fox, J., Pieters, M.,Daly, A. and Smith, R., (2004) A comparison of car ownership models Transport Reviews 24(4), pp.379.
De Jong, G. C., Kitamura, R. and Klooster, J (1994): A disaggregate model of vehicle holding duration, type choice and use.
Dargay, J. and Gately, D. (1999). Income's effect on car and vehicle ownership worldwide: 1960-2015. Transport atcion Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 33(2):101-138.
Mokonyama, M. and Venter, C. (2007). Journal of the South African institution of civil engineering Vol 49 no 3, pages 2-10, paper 633.
Kalenoja, H. (2001). Car ownership effects on the availability of local service. The Nordic Research Network on modelling transport, land use and environment, Finland
Dargay J. and Vythoulkas P., (1999) Estimation of a Dynamic car Ownership Model; a Pseudo-panel Approach. Journal of transport economics and policy, September 199, vol 33, part 3, pp 287-302.
Oyedepo J. O. and Etu J. E. Statistical Model Analysis of Dependence on Motor Cycle Transport at Ifedore LGA Ondo Nigeria Futojnls, Volume2, Issue-1, Pp- 118 - 126
Agbelie, B.R.D.K. A comparative empirical analysis of statistical models for evaluating highway segment crash frequency. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering (English Edition) (2016), http://dx.doi.org/ 10.1016/j.jtte.2016.07.001
Copyright (c) 2016 Journal of Applied Science & Process Engineering
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Copyright Transfer Statement for Journal
1) In signing this statement, the author(s) grant UNIMAS Publisher an exclusive license to publish their original research papers. The author(s) also grant UNIMAS Publisher permission to reproduce, recreate, translate, extract or summarize, and to distribute and display in any forms, formats, and media. The author(s) can reuse their papers in their future printed work without first requiring permission from UNIMAS Publisher, provided that the author(s) acknowledge and reference publication in the Journal.
2) For open access articles, the author(s) agree that their articles published under UNIMAS Publisher are distributed under the terms of the CC-BY-NC-SA (Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-Share Alike 4.0 International License) which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, for non-commercial purposes, provided the original work of the author(s) is properly cited.
3) For subscription articles, the author(s) agree that UNIMAS Publisher holds copyright, or an exclusive license to publish. Readers or users may view, download, print, and copy the content, for academic purposes, subject to the following conditions of use: (a) any reuse of materials is subject to permission from UNIMAS Publisher; (b) archived materials may only be used for academic research; (c) archived materials may not be used for commercial purposes, which include but not limited to monetary compensation by means of sale, resale, license, transfer of copyright, loan, etc.; and (d) archived materials may not be re-published in any part, either in print or online.
4) The author(s) is/are responsible to ensure his or her or their submitted work is original and does not infringe any existing copyright, trademark, patent, statutory right, or propriety right of others. Corresponding author(s) has (have) obtained permission from all co-authors prior to submission to the journal. Upon submission of the manuscript, the author(s) agree that no similar work has been or will be submitted or published elsewhere in any language. If submitted manuscript includes materials from others, the authors have obtained the permission from the copyright owners.
5) In signing this statement, the author(s) declare(s) that the researches in which they have conducted are in compliance with the current laws of the respective country and UNIMAS Journal Publication Ethics Policy. Any experimentation or research involving human or the use of animal samples must obtain approval from Human or Animal Ethics Committee in their respective institutions. The author(s) agree and understand that UNIMAS Publisher is not responsible for any compensational claims or failure caused by the author(s) in fulfilling the above-mentioned requirements. The author(s) must accept the responsibility for releasing their materials upon request by Chief Editor or UNIMAS Publisher.
6) The author(s) should have participated sufficiently in the work and ensured the appropriateness of the content of the article. The author(s) should also agree that he or she has no commercial attachments (e.g. patent or license arrangement, equity interest, consultancies, etc.) that might pose any conflict of interest with the submitted manuscript. The author(s) also agree to make any relevant materials and data available upon request by the editor or UNIMAS Publisher.
To download Copyright Transfer Statement for Journal, click here