REVISITING TEMPORAL CAUSALITY BETWEEN ISLAMIC FINANCE INSTRUMENTS AND OUTPUT

Abstract

With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, financing would again be the crux of the recovery process. This paper revisits existing literature on how financial development promotes growth by focusing on the role of Islamic finance in Malaysia. Specifically, the role of sukuk and loans by Islamic banks on output is examined in Malaysia. The main objective of this paper is to investigate the causal nexus between sukuk, Islamic banking loan, and output using a bootstrap causality test applied to both full sample and rolling window sub-samples. Data ranges from 2000M1-2021M6 for the sukuk market and 2006M12-2021M6 for Islamic banking loans. We rely on bootstrap rolling windows which allow for time-varying causalities within time-series data. Results indicate evidence that Islamic financing instruments, in this case, sukuk and loans by Islamic banks Granger-cause output in the long run. Even in the long run, non-constancy in the parameters is detected for total sukuk, sukuk for finance, and sukuk for transport. The parameter stability tests indicate parameter non-constancy in the short run for total sukuk, sukuk for finance, sukuk for transport, and sukuk for utility for the output - sukuk equation. In the case of Islamic financing via loans, short-run parameter instability is prevalent for all loan–output equations. We take the analysis further by examining the direction of the lead variables on a multi-time scale using continuous wavelet transforms and wavelet coherence. Results show that causality runs from sukuk output for total sukuk, transport, and utility sukuk whereas construction sukuk seems to exhibit a mixed behaviour.  In the case of sukuk for finance, the impact is more pronounced in the very-long run. These findings could be a guide for countries intending to use Islamic financing instruments as one of the tools for fiscal stimulus or post-pandemic economic recovery.