The Exogenous Shock of General Elections: Politically Connected Firms and Stock Price Crash Risk

Authors

  • Wai-Yan Wong Faculty of Economics and Management, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia
  • Chai-Aun Ooi School of Economics, Finance and Banking, Universiti Utara Malaysia
  • Chee-Wooi Hooy School of Management, Universiti Sains Malaysia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.33736/ijbs.5198.2022

Keywords:

Election, Exogenous shock, Malaysia, Political connection, Stock price crash risk

Abstract

Malaysia experienced unusual political turmoil during the general elections in 2008 (GE 2008) and 2013 (GE 2013). This study examines how such exogenous political shocks affect the stock price crash risk of politically connected firms (PCFs) compared to non-PCFs in Malaysia. The data for this study covers from the year 2002 to 2017. A balanced panel of 529 firms from 2002-2017 is used for analysis. This study finds that PCFs display a significantly lower stock price crash risk after GE 2008 and GE 2013 but not before GE 2008. However, the results are only applicable to the PCFs through the politically connected board of directors and businessmen. Further analysis reveals that increasing foreign (government) strategic free float shareholdings result in lower stock price crash risk of PCFs through the politically connected board of directors (government direct shareholdings). Our results provide several perspectives on the connection between stock price crash risk and political stability.

References

Bliss, M. A., & Gul, F. A. (2012a). Political connection and cost of debt: Some Malaysian evidence. Journal of Banking & Finance, 36(5), 1520-1527. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2011.12.011

Bliss, M. A., & Gul, F. A. (2012b). Political connection and leverage: Some Malaysian evidence. Journal of Banking & Finance, 36(8), 2344-2350. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2012.04.012

Boubaker, S., Mansali, H., & Rjiba, H. (2014). Large controlling shareholders and stock and stock price synchronicity. Journal of Banking & Finance, 40, 80-96. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.11.022

Boubakri, N., Guedhami, O., Mishra, D., & Saffar, W. (2012). Political connections and the cost of equity capital. Journal of Corporate Finance, 18(3), 541-559. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2012.02.005

Bushman, R., Piotroski, J., & Smith, A. (2004). What determines corporate transparency?. Journal of Accounting Research, 42(2), 207-252. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-679X.2004.00136.x

Chaney, P. K., Faccio, M., & Parsley, D. (2011). The quality of accounting information in politically connected firms. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 51(1-2), 58-76. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jacceco.2010.07.003

Chen, C., Kim, J. B., & Yao, L. (2017). Earnings smoothing: Does it exacerbate or constrain stock price crash risk?. Journal of Corporate Finance, 42, 36-54. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2016.11.004

Chen, J., Hong, H., & Stein, J. (2001). Forecasting crashes: Trading volume, past returns, and conditional skewness in stock prices. Journal of Financial Economics, 61(3), 345-81. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-405X(01)00066-6

Dimson, E. (1979). Risk measurement when shares are subject to infrequent trading. Journal of Financial Economics, 7(2), 197-226. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(79)90013-8

Fee, L. K., & Appudural, J. (2011). Race, class and politics in peninsular Malaysia: The general election of 2008. Asian Studies Review, 35(1), 63-82. https://doi.org/10.1080/10357823.2011.552706

Fisman, R. (2001). Estimating the value of political connections. American Economic Review, 91(4), 1095-1102. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.91.4.1095

Goldman, E., Rocholl, J., & So, J. (2009). Do politically connected boards affect firm value?. The Review of Financial Studies, 22(6), 2331-2360. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhn088

Gomez, E. T., Padmanabhan, T., Kamaruddin, N., Bhalla, S., & Fisal, F. (2017). Minister of Finance Incorporated: Ownership and control of corporate Malaysia. Palgrave Macmillan. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-4897-5

Goncharov, I., Werner, J. R., & Zimmermann, J. (2006). Does compliance with the German corporate governance code have an impact on stock valuation? An empirical analysis. Corporate Governance: An International Review, 14(5), 432-445. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8683.2006.00516.x

Guedhami, O., Pittman, J. A., & Saffar, W. (2014). Auditor choice in politically connected firms. Journal of Accounting Research, 52(1), 107-162. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-679X.12032

Hall, R., & Deardorff, A. (2006). Lobbying as legislative subsidy. American Political Science Review, 100(1), 69-84. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055406062010

Hillman, A. J. (2005) Politicians on the board of directors: Do connections affect the bottom line? Journal of Management, 31(3), 464-481. https://doi.org/10.1177/0149206304272187

Hutton, A. P., Marcus, A. J., & Tehranian, H. (2009). Opaque financial reports, R2, and crash risk, Journal of Financial Economics, 94(1), 67-86. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2008.10.003

Kim, C., & Zhang, L. (2016). Corporate political connections and tax aggressiveness. Contemporary Accounting Research, 33(1), 78-114. https://doi.org/10.1111/1911-3846.12150

Kim, Y., Li, H., & Li, S. (2014). Corporate social responsibility and stock price crash risk. Journal of Banking and Finance, 43, 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2014.02.013

Lee, W., & Wang, L. (2017). Do political connections affect stock price crash risk? Firm-level evidence from China. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 48(3), 643-676. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11156-016-0563-3

Leuz, C., & Oberholzer-Gee, F. (2006). Political relationships, global financing, and corporate transparency: Evidence from Indonesia. Journal of Financial Economics, 81(2), 411-439. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2005.06.006

Luo, J. H., Gong, M., Lin, Y., & Fang, Q. (2016). Political connections and stock price crash risk: Evidence from China. Economics Letters, 147, 90-92. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2016.08.024

Menon, J. (2018, June 19). What should be done about govt-linked companies?. New Straits Times. https://www.nst.com.my/opinion/columnists/2018/06/381394/what-should-be-done-about-govt-linked-companies.

O'Shannassy, M. (2009). Beyond the Barisan Nasional? A Gramscian perspective of the 2008 Malaysian general election. Contemporary Southeast Asia: A Journal of International and Strategic Affairs, 31(1), 88-109. https://www.muse.jhu.edu/article/265202 https://doi.org/10.1355/CS31-1D

Piotroski, J. D., Wong, T. J., & Zhang, T. (2015). Political incentives to suppress negative information: Evidence from Chinese listed firms. Journal of Accounting Research, 53(2), 405-459. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-679X.12071

Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R. W. (1994). Politicians and firms. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 109(4), 995-1025. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118354

Sun, P., Mellahi, K., Wright, M., & Xu, H. (2015). Political tie heterogeneity and the impact of adverse shocks on firm value. Journal of Management Studies, 52(8), 1036-1063. https://doi.org/10.1111/joms.12165

Tee, C. M. (2017). Political connections, institutional investors monitoring and stock price synchronicity: Evidence from Malaysian firms. Managerial Finance, 43(11), 1236-1253. https://doi.org/10.1108/MF-03-2017-0099

Wong, W. Y., & Hooy, C. W. (2018). Do types of political connection affect firm performance differently? Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 51, 297-317. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2018.08.009

Downloads

Published

2022-12-19

How to Cite

Wai-Yan Wong, Chai-Aun Ooi, & Chee-Wooi Hooy. (2022). The Exogenous Shock of General Elections: Politically Connected Firms and Stock Price Crash Risk. International Journal of Business and Society, 23(3), 1719–1738. https://doi.org/10.33736/ijbs.5198.2022