Sarawak Covid-19: Effects of Pre-Festival Mobility and Festival Gatherings

Authors

  • Jane Labadin Universiti Malaysia Sarawak
  • Boon-Hao Hong Universiti Malaysia Sarawak
  • Poline Bala Universiti Malaysia Sarawak
  • Juna Liau Universiti Malaysia Sarawak
  • Helmy Hazmi Universiti Malaysia Sarawak

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.33736/ijbs.3783.2021

Keywords:

Covid-19, Mathematical Modeling, Festival, Gathering, Seir

Abstract

Gathering to celebrate festivals is a common socio-cultural practice amongst Sarawak’s diverse groups. For untold years, individuals, households, villages and at times the entire communities get together to observe their various religious, cultural and community festivals. However, during the COVID-19 pandemic period, the practice of gathering to celebrate those festivals became a challenging practice. This is because density of population and intensity of social contacts are deemed to increase SARS-CoV-2 high transmissibility. In this paper, we analyzed the trend of COVID-19 active cases in Sarawak in the first half of the year 2021 and calibrated the parameter signifying the proportion of exposed population taking effective precautionary measures, κ in our model. Our findings suggest that after every festival celebration the value of κ is decreased, leading to the increased number of active cases. In addition, the pre-festival mobility change involving visits to the retail and grocery stores are higher than any other time. Therefore, the festival gatherings and increased pre-festival mobility are catalysts that accelerated the increment of the number of active COVID-19 cases in Sarawak. In light of this, we proposed that any form of festival related gathering ought to be avoided in order to curb any forms of outbreak in Sarawak.

References

Boccia, S. (2021). Christmas Festivities and COVID-19: A Foreseeable Risk to Anticipate. Frontiers in Public Health, 8, 639647-639647. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2020.639647

Brandl, M., Selb, R., Seidl-Pillmeier, S., Marosevic, D., Buchholz, U., & Rehmet, S. (2020). Mass gathering events and undetected transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in vulnerable populations leading to an outbreak with high case fatality ratio in the district of Tirschenreuth, Germany. Epidemiology and Infection, 148, e252. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268820002460

Che Mat, N. F., Edinur, H. A., Abdul Razab, M. K. A., & Safuan, S. (2020). A single mass gathering resulted in massive transmission of COVID-19 infections in Malaysia with further international spread. Journal of Travel Medicine, 27(3). https://doi.org/10.1093/jtm/taaa059

CodeBlue. (2020). Sarawak Enforces 14-Day Quarantine For Peninsula Travellers, Bars Non-Sarawakians From Sabah, Labuan. https://codeblue.galencentre.org/2020/10/01/ sarawak-enforces-14-day-quarantine-for-peninsula-travellers-bars-non-sarawakians-from-sabah-labuan/

Dass, S. C., Kwok, W. M., Gibson, G. J., Gill, B. S., Sundram, B. M., & Singh, S. (2021). A data driven change-point epidemic model for assessing the impact of large gathering and subsequent movement control order on COVID-19 spread in Malaysia. PloS one, 16(5), e0252136. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0252136

Geraldine, A. (2021). Sabah CNY family dinner creates new Covid-19 cluster. New Straits Times. https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/2021/02/668374/sabah-cny-family-dinner-creates-new-covid-19-cluster

Gill, B. S., Jayaraj, V. J., Singh, S., Mohd Ghazali, S., Cheong, Y. L., Md Iderus, N. H., Sundram, B. M., Aris, T. B., Mohd Ibrahim, H., Hong, B. H., & Labadin, J. (2020). Modelling the effectiveness of epidemic control measures in preventing the transmission of COVID-19 in Malaysia. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17(15), 5509. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17155509

Lim, J. T., Maung, K., Tan, S. T., Ong, S. E., Lim, J. M., Koo, J. R., Sun, H., Park, M., Tan, K. W., Yoong, J., Cook, A. R., & Dickens, B. S. L. (2021). Estimating direct and spill-over impacts of political elections on COVID-19 transmission using synthetic control methods. PLOS Computational Biology, 17(5), e1008959. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008959

Ling, S. (2021a, Feb 25). New Covid-19 cluster in Sarawak linked to CNY visits. The Star. https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2021/02/25/new-covid-19-cluster-in-sarawak-linked-to-cny-visits

Ling, S. (2021b, May 11). Sarawak keeps to CMCO but with stricter SOP until May 17, says state committee. The Star. https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2021/05/11/ sarawak-keeps-to-cmco-but-with-stricter-sop-until-may-17-says-state-committee

McCloskey, B., Zumla, A., Ippolito, G., Blumberg, L., Arbon, P., Cicero, A., Endericks, T., Lim, P. L., & Borodina, M. (2020). Mass gathering events and reducing further global spread of COVID-19: a political and public health dilemma. The Lancet, 395(10230), 1096-1099. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30681-4

Metcalf, P. (1982). Borneo Journey into Death: Berawan Eschatology From Its Rituals. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press. https://doi.org/10.9783/9781512818079

Tawie, S. (2021, May 31). Sarawak DCM: Funeral gatherings responsible for 12 Covid-19 clusters, 3,725 positive cases and 31 deaths in state. Malaymail. https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/2021/05/31/sarawak-dcm-funeral-gatherings-responsible-for-12-covid-19-clusters-3725-po/1978369

The Star. (2021, May 26). Health DG: 12 community clusters linked to Raya celebrations found. The Star. https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2021/05/26/health-dg-12-community-clusters-linked-to-raya-celebrations-found

Downloads

Published

2021-08-12

How to Cite

Jane Labadin, Boon-Hao Hong, Poline Bala, Juna Liau, & Helmy Hazmi. (2021). Sarawak Covid-19: Effects of Pre-Festival Mobility and Festival Gatherings. International Journal of Business and Society, 22(2), 1076–1083. https://doi.org/10.33736/ijbs.3783.2021