A Study of Car Demand and Its Interdependency in Sarawak
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33736/ijbs.3307.2020Keywords:
Car ownership, motorcycle ownership, interdependency, vector error correction model, fuel price, gross domestic product, SDG7Abstract
Several developing Asian countries recorded a high level of private based motorisation, specifically car and motorcycle ownership. Continuous rise in the level of private motorisations may lead to issues such as traffic congestions, high fuel consumption and pollutions. For that reason, there is a need to investigate the determinant of car ownership and the interdependency between car and motorcycle ownership in Sarawak, Malaysia. This study used time series annual data using vector error correction model (VECM) from 1980 to 2018. Based on the analysis, it is found that gross domestic product, fuel price and population density are significant determinants of car ownership. The findings revealed that as the standard of living rises, car demand increases. At the state aggregate level, it is found that there is a substitution relationship between both modes. This indicates that people are highly likely to shift from motorcycle ownership to car ownership in the long run. Based on the findings, the policy recommendations in the study include encouraging shifts to alternative modes of transport through public transport reforms as well as improving facilities for a more sustainable mode of transportation in Sarawak.
References
Anastasopoulos, P., Karlaftis, M., Haddock, J., & Mannering, F. (2012). Household Automobile and Motorcycle Ownership Analyzed with Random Parameters Bivariate Ordered Probit Model. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2279, 12–20. doi: https://doi.org/10.3141/2279-02
Barter, P. (1999). An International Comparative Perspective on Urban Transport and Urban Form in Pacific Asia: The Challenge of Rapid Motorisation in Dense Cities. Murdoch University. Retrieved from http://researchrepository.murdoch.edu.au/3332/
Census and Economics Information Centre (CEIC). (2019). Malaysia Motor Vehicles Registration. Retrieved from https://www.ceicdata.com/en/malaysia/motor-vehicles-registration
Chiou, Y. C., Wen, C. H., Tsai, S. H., & Wang, W. Y. (2009). Integrated modeling of car/motorcycle ownership, type and usage for estimating energy consumption and emissions. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 43(7), 665–684. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2009.06.002
Davis, S., & Boundy, R. (2019). Transportation Energy Data Book. Annual Review of Energy and the Environment (37th ed.). US: Department of Energy. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.energy.14.1.375
Department of Statistics Malaysia (DOSM). (2016). Household Income and Basic Amenities Survey. Putrajaya.
Department of Statistics Malaysia (DOSM). (2019). Malaysia Yearly Book of Statistics. Putrajaya.
Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of The American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427–431. doi: https://doi.org/10.2307/2286348
Fujimoto, H. (2008). The Modal Shift to Environmentally Sustainable Transport: Prospects of Urban Transport Systems: LRT, BRT and Buses. Science & Technology Trends Quarterly Review. Tokyo. doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.004
Gomez-Gelvez, J. A., & Obando, C. (2014). Joint Disaggregate Modeling of Car and Motorcycle Ownership. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2451(1), 149–156. doi: https://doi.org/10.3141/2451-17
Goodwin, P., Dargay, J., & Hanly, M. (2004). Elasticities of road traffic and fuel consumption with respect to price and income: A review. Transport Reviews, 24(3), 275–292. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/0144164042000181725
Graham, D. J., & Glaister, S. (2002). The demand for automobile fuel: A survey of elasticities. Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, 36(1), 1–26.
Hashim, S. F., Hashim, H., & Shuib, K. B. (2017). Residents’ perspective on cycling as an option for transportation in Putrajaya. Planning Malaysia, 6, 97–108. doi: https://doi.org/10.21837/pmjournal.v16.i6.271
Herwangi, Y. (2018). Motorcycle dependency in low-income people : modeling spatial and socioeconomic factors in urbanized area of yogyakarta. Jurnal Plano Madani, 7(2), 196–208.
Hess, D. B., & Ong, P. M. (2002). Traditional neighborhoods and automobile ownership. Transportation Research Record, (1805), 35–44. doi: https://doi.org/10.3141/1805-05
Hsu, T. P., Tsai, C. C., & Lin, Y. J. (2007). Comparative Analysis of Household Car and Motorcycle Ownership Characteristics. Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, 7, 105–115.
Hsu, T. P., Mohd. Sadullah, A. F., & Nguyen, X. D. (2003). A comparative study on motorcycle traffic development of Taiwan, Malaysia and Vietnam. The Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies (EASTS). Retrieved from http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.460.2229&rep=rep1&type=pdf
Islam, R., Ghani, A. B. A., Kusuma, B., & Hong, E. T. Y. (2016). An analysis of factors that affecting the number of car sales in Malaysia. International Review of Management and Marketing, 6(4), 872–882.
Johansen, S., & Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration- with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52(2), 169–210. doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.14680084.1990.mp52002003.x
Lim, B., Jacob, S. M., Issac, B., & Lim, E. (2007). Efficient Transport And Economic Development : A Transport Survey Analysis. In International Economic Conference on Trade and Industry (IECTI) (pp. 1–15). Penang. Retrieved from http://repo.uum.edu.my/2397/
Maysami, R. C., & Koh, T. S. (2000). A vector error correction model of the Singapore stock market. International Review of Economics and Finance, 9(1), 79–96. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S1059-0560(99)00042-8
Ministry of Domestic Trade Co-operatives and Consumerism (MDTCC). (2019). Malaysian Fuel Price. Putra Jaya.
Newman, P. W. G., & Kenworthy, J. R. (1989). Gasoline consumption and cities: A comparison of U.S. cities with a global survey. Journal of the American Planning Association, 55(1), 24–37. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/01944368908975398
Organisation Internationale des Constructeurs d’Automobiles (OICA). (2018). World Motor Vehicle. International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers. Retrieved from http://www.oica.net/
Pojanavatee, S. (2014). Cointegration and causality analysis of dynamic linkage between stock market and equity mutual funds in Australia. Cogent Economics and Finance, 2(1), 1–17. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2014.918855
Pongthanaisawan, J., & Sorapipatana, C. (2010). Relationship between level of economic development and motorcycle and car ownerships and their impacts on fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emission in Thailand. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 14(9), 2966–2975. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2010.07.034
Reza, A., & Spiro, M. (1979). The demand for passenger car transport services and for gasoline. Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, 13(3), 304–319. doi: http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.2307/20052550
Romilly, P., Song, H., & Liu, X. (1998). Modelling And Forecasting Car Ownership In Britain. A Cointegration And General To Specific Approach. Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, 32(2), 165–185.
Samad Nawi, A., Bashir Ahmad, S. A., Mahmood, W. M. W., Sekharan Nair, G. K., Siti Nurathirah, A., & Abdul Hamid, B. (2013). Determinants of passenger car sales in Malaysia. World Applied Sciences Journal, 23, 67–73. doi: https://doi.org/10.5829/idosi.wasj.2013.23.eemcge.22013
Sandu, M. C. (2015). A Time Series Analysis Using R for Understanding Car Sales On The Romanian Market. Revista RomâNă de Statistică, 63(3), 130–140.
Sanghi, A. K. (1976). The relationship between population density, automobile ownership and automobile use: Its role in transportation planning. Ann Reg Sci, 10, 118–127. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01291240
Sanko, N., Dissayanake, D., Kurauchi, S., Maesoba, H., Yamamoto, T., & Morikawa, T. (2014). Household car and motorcycle ownership in Bangkok and Kuala Lumpur in comparison with Nagoya. Transportmetrica, 10(3), 187–213.
Senbil, M., Zhang, J., & Fujiwara, A. (2007). Motorization in Asia. IATSS Research, 31(1), 46–58. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0386-1112(14)60183-7
Shrestha, M. B., & Bhatta, G. R. (2018). Selecting appropriate methodological framework for time series data analysis. The Journal of Finance and Data Science, 4(2), 71–89. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfds.2017.11.001
Tuan, V. A. (2011). Dynamic Interactions between Private Passenger Car and Motorcycle Ownership in Asia: A Cross-country Analysis. Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, 9, 541–556.
Ubaidillah, N. Z. (2019). Determinants of Car and Motorcycle Ownership and Use in Sarawak. University of Leeds. Retrieved from http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/id/eprint/26409
United Nation. (2015). Analysis of the Transport Relevance of Each of the 17 SDGs. Retrieved from https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/8656Analysis of transportrelevance of SDGs.pdf
United Nation. (2018). Accelerating SDG7 Achievement Policy Briefs in Support of the First SDG7 Review at the UN High-Level Political Forum 2018. Retrieved from https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/17501PB16.pdf
Verbeek, M. (2008). A Guide to Modern Econometrics (3rd Ed). Chichester, England: John Wiley & Sons.
Yamamoto, T. (2009). Comparative analysis of household car, motorcycle and bicycle ownership between Osaka metropolitan area, Japan and Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Transportation, 36(3), 351–366. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-009-9196-x
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright Transfer Statement for Journal
1) In signing this statement, the author(s) grant UNIMAS Publisher an exclusive license to publish their original research papers. The author(s) also grant UNIMAS Publisher permission to reproduce, recreate, translate, extract or summarize, and to distribute and display in any forms, formats, and media. The author(s) can reuse their papers in their future printed work without first requiring permission from UNIMAS Publisher, provided that the author(s) acknowledge and reference publication in the Journal.
2) For open access articles, the author(s) agree that their articles published under UNIMAS Publisher are distributed under the terms of the CC-BY-NC-SA (Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-Share Alike 4.0 International License) which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, for non-commercial purposes, provided the original work of the author(s) is properly cited.
3) For subscription articles, the author(s) agree that UNIMAS Publisher holds copyright, or an exclusive license to publish. Readers or users may view, download, print, and copy the content, for academic purposes, subject to the following conditions of use: (a) any reuse of materials is subject to permission from UNIMAS Publisher; (b) archived materials may only be used for academic research; (c) archived materials may not be used for commercial purposes, which include but not limited to monetary compensation by means of sale, resale, license, transfer of copyright, loan, etc.; and (d) archived materials may not be re-published in any part, either in print or online.
4) The author(s) is/are responsible to ensure his or her or their submitted work is original and does not infringe any existing copyright, trademark, patent, statutory right, or propriety right of others. Corresponding author(s) has (have) obtained permission from all co-authors prior to submission to the journal. Upon submission of the manuscript, the author(s) agree that no similar work has been or will be submitted or published elsewhere in any language. If submitted manuscript includes materials from others, the authors have obtained the permission from the copyright owners.
5) In signing this statement, the author(s) declare(s) that the researches in which they have conducted are in compliance with the current laws of the respective country and UNIMAS Journal Publication Ethics Policy. Any experimentation or research involving human or the use of animal samples must obtain approval from Human or Animal Ethics Committee in their respective institutions. The author(s) agree and understand that UNIMAS Publisher is not responsible for any compensational claims or failure caused by the author(s) in fulfilling the above-mentioned requirements. The author(s) must accept the responsibility for releasing their materials upon request by Chief Editor or UNIMAS Publisher.
6) The author(s) should have participated sufficiently in the work and ensured the appropriateness of the content of the article. The author(s) should also agree that he or she has no commercial attachments (e.g. patent or license arrangement, equity interest, consultancies, etc.) that might pose any conflict of interest with the submitted manuscript. The author(s) also agree to make any relevant materials and data available upon request by the editor or UNIMAS Publisher.
