Assessing the Impact of ENSO Events on Mangrove Carbon Stock Using Landsat-8: A Case Study in Sungai Kakap, West Kalimantan
Keywords:
mangrove carbon stock, El Niño, vegetation indices, biomass, tropical coastal ecosystemAbstract
Climate change poses a significant threat to mangrove ecosystems, which play a vital role in carbon sequestration. This study analyses the impact of El Niño phenomena on mangrove carbon stocks in Sungai Kakap, West Kalimantan, using Landsat-8 imagery data from normal (2013), very strong El Niño (2015), and weak El Niño (2019) years. The methodology included mangrove cover classification, NDVI-based biomass estimation, and carbon stock calculation using a 0.47 conversion factor. The results revealed that during very strong El Niño conditions, mangrove vegetation density, biomass, and carbon stocks significantly declined, despite an increase in spatial coverage. In contrast, a partial recovery was observed during the weak El Niño year, though values did not return to normal baseline levels. The results demonstrate a clear linkage between reduced vegetation density and declines in biomass and carbon storage capacity, highlighting the sensitivity of mangrove structural dynamics to climate-driven disturbances. These findings underscore that spatial extent alone is insufficient to evaluate ecosystem recovery or carbon sequestration potential. Instead, climate-adaptive management should priorities integrated monitoring frameworks that combine satellite-based observations with structural ecological assessments to enhance the protection and resilience of mangrove carbon stocks in ENSO-prone regions.
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